Summary of the report:
Promoting domestic demand to accelerate the construction of the power grid: the southern Power Grid Corp increased 60 billion yuan in the two years after the Ming Dynasty to improve the urban agricultural network. The annual investment scale is about 90 billion yuan, and the national Power Grid Corp program invested 11600 billion yuan in 2-3 years. The investment of the power grid is expected to be 750 billion yuan in the next two years, and the investment of the State Grid increased to 14030 billion yuan during the "11th Five-Year" period. . The two Power Grid Corp investment in 11th Five-Year totaled 17112 billion yuan, an increase of 18% over the previous plan.
The degree of benefit of electric power equipment enterprises depends on the structure of grid investment.
1) 1000kV UHV investment in the next 2-3 years is about 110 billion yuan, and the annual average increase in 09-10 investment is 30 billion yuan. We think it is the most important thing to restart the "11th Five-Year" UHV program and accelerate the construction of the follow-up project. A judgment can be made.
2) the State Grid Company's DC is still in line with the original plan, and the next 2-3 investment is about 75 billion yuan. 750kV was still in accordance with the original plan during 09-10, and the investment scale of 750kV in 2011 was comparable to that of the last two years. Because of the small initial base number, the 09 year growth rate of DC and 750kV investment was very high.
3) from the growth rate of each voltage level, the high-end growth rate is the fastest, 500kV and the following voltage level 09 year investment growth rate is 40%, the companies that produce voltage grade equipment will benefit, especially companies that have business in every voltage grade will benefit, for example, special transformer (23.48, -0.66, -2.73%, bar), flat high electric (13.3 5, -0.64, -4.57%, bar), Siyuan electric (30, -1.22, -3.91%, bar), Xu Jie electric (12.90, -1.10, -7.86%, bar), national electricity South Switzerland, national electricity South self (12.46, -0.87, -6.53%, bar) and so on.
4) 110kV and the following part of the new investment is the most, a large part of which is to cooperate with the new rural construction of the "new rural electrification" investment, "new rural electrification" investment is rigid, although the investment of 110kV and the following voltage level is high related to the growth of electricity consumption and is greatly influenced by the macro economy. We believe that there are still opportunities for investment in 110kV and below grid equipment manufacturers. The growth rate of the grid 110kV and the following voltage levels is 40% in 09 years, but the growth of this part of the southern power grid is 200%. 110kV and the following voltage products in Southern China will benefit very clearly, such as CLOU Electronics (20.40, -0.90, -4.23%, bar), Changyuan group, Chi Guang electric (14.33, -0.36, -2.45%, bar), and South Foreign shares (12.57, -1.31, -9.44%, bar), otter, etc.
The expansion of investment in the power grid is very obvious: the market size of the transformers above 110kV in the next two years is about 81 billion 800 million yuan, up 77% over the last two years, and the market size of the switch is about 70 billion 800 million yuan, up 57% over the last two years.
Domestic high-end electrical equipment competition pattern is basically stable, the next three years, 1000kV, 750kV, DC project construction ushered in the peak, due to the requirements of domestic, transformer (reactor) by the special electrician, 21.04,0.00,0.00%, the West Electric Group, the switch from flat high electric, new Northeast Electric (2.55, -0.22, -7.94%, bar) The DC exchange valve is provided by the West whole, the xhu group and the electric academy, and the DC control and protection are provided by the four sides of the South Swiss relay protection, Xu Ji electric and Beijing. After 2010, 500kV and below voltage grade investment slowed down, and the growth of these companies will be more determined due to the construction of high-end projects.The lower price of raw materials has brought about the excess return as an approximate event: the price of raw materials has fallen sharply in the near future, while some companies have obtained a large number of orders at the high level of raw materials. We believe that the probability of changing the price of the closed contract signed before is very small. Electrical equipment companies are likely to get excess returns. TP, Tianwei Bao, Ping Gao electric and so on in hand orders, supply cycle is long, the first equipment enterprises may benefit very obviously.
The capital of the power grid construction is not a problem: the profit of the enterprise is only a part of the investment funds of the power grid, and the funds from the depreciation and net profit of the fixed assets account for about 60%, the rest is the loan and the debt issuance. The assets and liabilities rate of the two Power Grid Corp has been kept at about 60% for a long time. Even if the Power Grid Corp has not been profitable for 09 years, the funds for the construction of the power grid depend entirely on loans and debt, and the asset liability rate of Power Grid Corp is still below 70%. The power plant's profitability is expected to recover in the middle of 09 years due to a substantial reduction in the price of coal. No matter the price reduction or the up-regulation of the electricity price will increase the profit of the power grid, and the funds for the construction of the power grid will be further eased.
Investment strategy and key recommendation companies: we continue to maintain the investment rating of the "leading city -A" in the electrical equipment industry.
In the investment strategy, we recommend two combinations, "big meal" combination: for 09 years, the investment of each voltage level has increased by more than 40%, and the investment of UHV AC, DC and 750kV will remain very high after 10 years. The fall of the material will bring over the excess income, choose the equipment company first, and the approval of the UHP exchange project in the second half of the 09 year will be the catalyst for the new round of stock price rise of these companies, with the emphasis on the special electrician, flat high electric, and Siyuan electric. "Dessert" combination: two Power Grid Corp for 09 years 110kV and the following voltage grade investment increased by 40%, but the investment in the southern Power Grid Corp increased by 200%, so the Southern China region has a large income ratio, and the products mainly used in the 110kV and below voltage level will benefit obviously, mainly recommending CLOU electronics and Nanyang shares. |
